Thursday, September 13, 2012

Election 2012: The Math

We could talk about the issues of Obama vs Romney all day long and still not agree on who is the best person for the job. To me that is counterproductive right now because it is obvious neither are perfect matches for the job. What can't be discounted though is the Electoral College and how the election process really runs. Every election it comes down to 8-10 battle ground states that determine the Election. Each side has about 15-20 states that no matter the election they are going to vote for that political party. It doesn't matter who the candidate is in Mississippi they are going to vote Republican. Likewise it doesn't matter who the candidate is in New York they are going to vote Democrat. That is why I don't understand why people get all worked up about the National Poll because every election is determined how states vote. The States that will determine this election are Florida, Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin, Colorado, Nevada, Virginia, North Carolina, Missouri, and Iowa. So I thought it would be interesting to see who is winning those states right now with less than two months before the election.

Florida: Obama 49 Romney 44

Ohio Obama 50 Romney 43

Michigan Obama 47 Romney 37

Wisconsin Obama 49 Romney 47

Colorado Obama 49 Romney 44

Nevada Obama 50 Romney 47

Virginia Obama 49 Romney 44

N. Carolina Romney 49 Obama 46

Missouri Romney 50 Obama 43

Iowa Romney 47 Obama 45

So lets do the math if each wins the states they are ahead in right now the winner would be President Obama by a score of 332-206. So then I tried to look for a path for Romney to win the election. I consider a toss up state one that is within 4 points so lets say i give Romney Wisconsin, Nevada, and Iowa that would not even get him close. What it comes down to is Florida, Ohio, and Michigan where Romney likely needs to win 2 out of the 3 states. Right now he is down 5 in Florida, 7 in Ohio, and a whopping 10 in Michigan. I know alot can change in a month with the debates coming up. But that is a lot of ground to make up with not a whole lot of time to do it in. Before I get accused of using liberal polls I used and used the averages of the latest polls to get my numbers. Those have polls from gallup, foxnews, nbc, cbs, cnn so I think it is a very fair sampling.

The strength of President Obama is not making mistakes speaking so for those expecting him to make a mistake in the debates don't hold your breath. I think both candidates will play it very close to the vest. To me thats fine for Obama as he seems to be pulling away, but for Romney he needs to bring out the big guns and make the point that he is the better man to bring the economy out of the doldrums. Because last poll i heard was close but the American People still trust Obama to run the economy. For Romney to win the election he needs to lead that by a large margin because he is running on i am better with the economy. So if Romney doesn't change that dramatically I don't see any way he can win. Because math never lies and the math says President Obama will be having a very good night on November 5th.

Saturday, September 8, 2012

Game Day Irish style

I am sure there are many of you that follow me at my twins blog and just assume that I just like baseball well that couldn't be further from the truth.  I am a huge huge football fan both College and Pro.  My teams for the Pro's unfortunately are the Vikings.  Even though they are going through a rough patch the last couple years I believe things are on the rise.  I truly believe it is the right thing the way that General Manager Rick Spielman is putting the team together.  Going young that is just coming into its prime and building through the draft.  I am thankful that the future of the Minnesota Vikings is secure after they were able this spring to secure a new Football Stadium in Minneapolis.

In the college game my allegiance is solidly behind the Notre Dame Fighting Irish.  I have been watching the Irish every Saturday for my whole life through the good times and the bad times.  Lately I know there have been some bad times and I know it is easy to jump off the Irish lately, but I truly believe that Brian Kelly is slowly, but surely bringing glory back to South Bend.  The Irish got off to a great start in Ireland last week with a drubbing of Navy by the score of 50-10.  Everrett Gholson got off to an outstanding start to his Irish Career.  Kelly did a very smart thing for a young quarterback making his first start and that is running the football.  Theo Riddick stepped in nicely for the suspended Cierre Woods to rushing for 107 yards and two touchdowns and catching two more passes for 25 yards.  George Atchinson III backed him up with 99 yards and two touchdowns of his own.  In all the Irish rushed for 293 yards on 46 carries which is 6.4 a carry.  This is unusual because Brian Kelly's history has shown he loves to throw the ball so 46 runs vs 23 passes was quite remarkable.  But Kelly is not stupid when you get Woods back he will have a three headed monster and losing Michael Floyd will make this a rush first team. 

The defense did a very good job stopping Navy's triple option holding them to 149 yards rushing over 150 yards lower than their average last season. Mantai Ta'oe did a great job filling the gaps and making multiple stops behind the line.  The Seconary has some work to do as they allowed Navy to throw for 192 yards in the air which is like 3 games worth for Navy usually.  They will be tested by Michigan, Stanford, Oklahoma, and USC's passing games so they need to get it fixed and fast.

Today, the Irish open their home schedule with a battle with old rival Purdue at Notre Dame stadium.  It would be easy to say the Irish will have no problem with the Boilermakers based on the 38-10 drubbing last year in West Lafeyette.  However, Purdue has an experienced qb in Robert Marve so it will be interesting to see how the Irish secondary holds up.  I expect a big win, but it wouldn't surprise me if this game was closer than what most people think.  I have no doubts the Irish offense will score enough points to win, the only question I have is can the Irish secondary hold up for all four quarters.

Prediction:  Notre Dame 38  Purdue 17

Thursday, September 6, 2012

The Election

Before I start I want to preface by saying that I am a moderate who in the last 16 years that I could vote has voted Republican and Democrat. So I am not one of those people that just go down the line of a certain political party. I even voted for Jesse Ventura as Governor of Minnesota. That was something I came to regret, but I am digressing. The point is I don’t have a solid coalition to either political party. So when I look at the 2012 presidential election I first have to come clean I voted for President Obama in 2008, but until recently I was indecisive who I was going to vote for in 2012 so I watched intently both political conventions. With that said President Obama has a huge speech tonight that could change a lot of minds on who they are planning to vote for. The Republicans had their conventions and I have to say I was underwhelmed by the speeches of Governor Romney and Congressman Ryan. It felt like they were being too vague about what they planned on doing if they were elected. First let me introduce myself I am a non- traditional college senior that is nervous about the job market that I will be going into in a few short months. The thing that I didn’t want to hear was a term I have come to hate because I don’t believe in it which is trickle-down economics. In my history the only thing that trickles down in that is the money trickles down into the top 10% pockets. Then another term I hate was brought up and that is tax cuts for top 3%. When opinion if you are making that much money you don’t need the tax cuts you are doing very well for yourself and I commend you for that. The thing that I am going to remember from the Republican Convention is Clint Eastwood talking to a chair. That did the party no favors and pushed people on the fence the other way.

The Democrats are having their convention right now and I have to say this is how you have a convention. The first night Michelle Obama spoke about the kind of man that her husband is. When I look to a President the first thing I look at is he a good man. Can I trust him the next four years because besides what everyone seems to think the President works for me not the other way around. Listening to Mrs. Obama talk about her husband made me think that she trusts him completely so maybe it is ok for me to trust him. Then what put it over the edge for me was last night hearing President Clinton talk. I know personally he is a flawed man everyone knows that. However, professionally he has been the best President of my lifetime. This country wasn’t in better shape in my lifetime than when Bill Clinton was President. So when he talks I listen and the way he spoke for President Obama really surprised me as not that long ago President Clinton and President Obama were staunch adversaries during the 2008 election. It would have been easy for President Clinton to hold a grudge, but he is above that. He made a great speech that left me wanting more and solidly put my support behind President Obama.

Here are a few reasons why I support Obama; The fact which I truly believe, that President Obama was put into an impossible position. George Bush bankrupted this country by fighting two wars which we should not have been in and sending our great troops into harm’s way. By the way I want to thank any veteran who reads this for their courageous service to keeping our country secure. I truly believe that freedom does not come free and many men and women died to allow a person like me to enjoy my freedom. That is why I love this country as two people can disagree on politics and have the freedom to criticize the government without disappearing late at night like in some other countries. However, I digress again with the wars and the end of regulations on businesses George Bush put into motion something so terrible that it could not be stopped. When the Financial Crisis happened Bush left Obama holding the bag, but not before he left him a parting gift and paying millions out to corrupt CEO’s to leave office. When Obama came in he had to bail out the banks because what choice did he have. The automobile restructuring has worked and made the auto industry more secure and more fiscally responsible. Obama is not perfect but the plans he put in place are working. The problem is they are not working fast enough for most Americans. For every hundred thousand jobs that he created there was thousands more that were out of work. When you or your family is struggling because of that it is easy to blame someone, but trust me the prosperity is coming. Like Bill Clinton said there is no one and I mean no one that could have done more to create jobs. It just is going to take a little more time and I just ask you be a little more patient.

Then when it comes to health care that is where I get peeved by the Republicans and a big reason why I am voting Democrat in the fall. I am one of over 3 million people in America that is uninsured so when Obama Care was passed I felt like my fears about what happens when I get sick. Or what happens if I get hurt where am I going to come up with the money to pay doctor bills. For those out there that have insurance through work there is nothing worse than getting constant calls from bill collectors to pay a bill you would love to pay, but if it comes down to putting food on the table and putting gas in the car to go to school then I do what I have to do. So my feeling was yes there is a way out and then all you hear from Governor Romney is he is going to repeal Obama Care the moment he gets into office and that saddens me. Then I get pissed off when I hear that they want to change Medicare which is something my parents rely on every day. Getting rid of the donut hole was so important to my parents that we all love Obama Care. When I hear things like that I think are the Republicans in bed with the Insurance Companies and the hospitals to make as much money off us poor people that can’t afford insurance.

My last point and the main reason I voted Democrat in 2008 and will again in 2012 is who do you trust to run this country the middle class or the top 10%. This country was built through the middle class who pulled themselves up by their bootstraps. This country was built on men who struggled to go from apprentices to working their way to the top. That is the American dream to go from the bottom to the top. That is why I trust the middle class to do this and the only way to do this is for the Republicans and the Democrats to work together. They need to strengthen the Middle Class not the Elite. If you strengthen the Middle class there will be more small businesses who will hire more employees which will bring the unemployment down. If you put the elite in charge all you are going to see are guys like Mitt Romney, Dick Cheney, George Bush, and Karl Rove get richer and richer. My only question can we afford to take a chance on the elite running the country again as the last time they were in charge we fought 2 wars, thousands of sons and daughters were killed unnecessarily, and we faced the worst economic downturn since the Great Depression. I don’t know about you, but after looking at all the facts I am not willing to take that chance. So in closing on November 6th reelect Barack Obama because we can’t risk this country’s future to Mitt Romney.

Intro of Travistalkseverything

Hi my name is Travis Aune and I will talk about everything that goes on in my head. From Sports to Politics to pop culture. A little bit of everything so I hope you will contine to check this site out. You can go to my other blog of That site is strictly about the Minnesota Twins and their affiliates. This blog is about everything so I welcome you to check this out. If you are looking for twins material still go there or where I will post Twins material. But if you are looking for something a little bit different check this out for everything else in life.