Thursday, September 13, 2012

Election 2012: The Math

We could talk about the issues of Obama vs Romney all day long and still not agree on who is the best person for the job. To me that is counterproductive right now because it is obvious neither are perfect matches for the job. What can't be discounted though is the Electoral College and how the election process really runs. Every election it comes down to 8-10 battle ground states that determine the Election. Each side has about 15-20 states that no matter the election they are going to vote for that political party. It doesn't matter who the candidate is in Mississippi they are going to vote Republican. Likewise it doesn't matter who the candidate is in New York they are going to vote Democrat. That is why I don't understand why people get all worked up about the National Poll because every election is determined how states vote. The States that will determine this election are Florida, Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin, Colorado, Nevada, Virginia, North Carolina, Missouri, and Iowa. So I thought it would be interesting to see who is winning those states right now with less than two months before the election.

Florida: Obama 49 Romney 44

Ohio Obama 50 Romney 43

Michigan Obama 47 Romney 37

Wisconsin Obama 49 Romney 47

Colorado Obama 49 Romney 44

Nevada Obama 50 Romney 47

Virginia Obama 49 Romney 44

N. Carolina Romney 49 Obama 46

Missouri Romney 50 Obama 43

Iowa Romney 47 Obama 45

So lets do the math if each wins the states they are ahead in right now the winner would be President Obama by a score of 332-206. So then I tried to look for a path for Romney to win the election. I consider a toss up state one that is within 4 points so lets say i give Romney Wisconsin, Nevada, and Iowa that would not even get him close. What it comes down to is Florida, Ohio, and Michigan where Romney likely needs to win 2 out of the 3 states. Right now he is down 5 in Florida, 7 in Ohio, and a whopping 10 in Michigan. I know alot can change in a month with the debates coming up. But that is a lot of ground to make up with not a whole lot of time to do it in. Before I get accused of using liberal polls I used and used the averages of the latest polls to get my numbers. Those have polls from gallup, foxnews, nbc, cbs, cnn so I think it is a very fair sampling.

The strength of President Obama is not making mistakes speaking so for those expecting him to make a mistake in the debates don't hold your breath. I think both candidates will play it very close to the vest. To me thats fine for Obama as he seems to be pulling away, but for Romney he needs to bring out the big guns and make the point that he is the better man to bring the economy out of the doldrums. Because last poll i heard was close but the American People still trust Obama to run the economy. For Romney to win the election he needs to lead that by a large margin because he is running on i am better with the economy. So if Romney doesn't change that dramatically I don't see any way he can win. Because math never lies and the math says President Obama will be having a very good night on November 5th.

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